LA-06: Cook Political Report Calls It a Toss-Up!

Is it really taking Ashley Casey seriously? (0.00 / 1)

I couldn't fathom Casey picking up more than 3-4% of the vote in the general.

I mean, the 'template' for this district is: 'party line Republican suburban white guy'. Paul Sawyer was basically that guy, and he got knocked out. (I blame a short election cycle and some brain dead maneuvering with the Baker people).

Calogne and Jenkins both repulse huge numbers of GOP voters, and I can't imagine Casey making too much in the way of inroads here.

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by: Matt D @ Fri Mar 21, 2008 at 08:54:12 AM CDT

Never say never ... (0.00 / 0)

I'd be surprised if she received 5% of the vote, but I've seen stranger things happen, like Ross Perot getting 19% nationally back in 1992.  

If Jenkins wins the GOP nod, as folks expect him to, don't be surprised if a big number of Republicans vote for Casey ... after all, she IS a Republican, as she has worked for the following:

Intern for the Republican Staff Director of the House Education and Labor Committee; then worked for Republican Senator Jim Jeffords in 1991; then worked for Republican Rep. Susan Molinari of NY; then worked as the Communications Director for former Republican Congresswoman Sue Kelly of NY; and she came to work for Republican Governor Buddy Roemer here in Louisiana.  

That is NOT the resume of an independent.  It is the resume of a REPUBLICAN.  She's running as an Independent because she couldn't win a Republican nomination fight against Woody.  But she can certainly deny him the seat.  

"I was against NAFTA and CAFTA, and I'll be against SHAFTA."

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by: ryan @ Fri Mar 21, 2008 at 17:15:56 PM CDT

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You missed these... (0.00 / 0)

She most recently worked with INDEPENDENT John Georges.  She also worked recently for DEMOCRATS Ron Forman, Arnie Fielkow, Jackie Clarkson and Stacy Head.  

I say she is politically savvy for not jumping in the kooky Republican primary that no one knew about!  Half the voters in the district don't even realize Baker has resigned.

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by: buras @ Fri Mar 21, 2008 at 17:20:09 PM CDT

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There is nothing on her website showing that she worked with those Democrats. (0.00 / 0)

Thanks for stretching the truth ... if working with the City Council means she worked for Democrats, then you can say I worked for Republicans when I worked with the non-profit groups that had both Democrats and Republicans leading it.  Please.  

Georges ... an Independent?  Are you kidding?  Let's look at who he has donated to in the last two years:

Mitch McConnell, Republican Senator from Kentucky
Mitt Romney, Republican Candidate for President

And that's it.  No Democrats.  Some Independent he is.  

"I was against NAFTA and CAFTA, and I'll be against SHAFTA."

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by: ryan @ Fri Mar 21, 2008 at 17:59:25 PM CDT

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So when DOES working on or giving to a Democrat CAMPAIGN count? (0.00 / 0)

Interesting that you have totally written off her CAMPAIGN work that ELECTED multiple well respected Democrat members of the New Orleans City Council -- members the party should be embracing instead of ignoring.  Casey also worked with your former golden boy John Kennedy back in his liberal days.

Also, Georges has given to Ted Kennedy, Maria Cantwell, Bill Jefferson (for MANY years before the scandal) and has even given $15K to the DCCC.  His entities gave over $20K to Mitch Landrieu in his Mayoral race.  

What exactly DOES count as working with Democrats in your book?

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by: buras @ Sun Mar 23, 2008 at 16:11:52 PM CDT

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Well, if she's such an Independent, (0.00 / 0)

why is her work for Democratic members of the NOLA City Council not on her website?  Afraid to scare off the Republican voters she hopes to attract, perhaps?

As for Georges' contributions to Democratic candidates/entities ... good for him.  But he's a typical businessman ... giving to those he thinks will win, and those he thinks will be in a position to help him out later on when he comes calling.  

"I was against NAFTA and CAFTA, and I'll be against SHAFTA."

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by: ryan @ Mon Mar 24, 2008 at 22:00:01 PM CDT

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The 6th District CAN elect an independent (0.00 / 0)

Have you checked out Ashley Casey's website ( www.ashleycasey.com )?  She is very different from Calonge and Jenkins and I think that as an independent, she can credibly deliver the message that the parties ARE broken.  

Where do you get the template from the district from anyway?  The district is 24% independent, 28% Republican and 33% African-American.  It is 45% male and 55% female.  It is 2/3 urban/surburban and 1/3 rural.  30% if the district is under 35 and nearly 50% is under 45.  All of these people are looking for a "party line Republican suburban white guy"?  

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by: buras @ Fri Mar 21, 2008 at 17:16:34 PM CDT

Sorry ... it's not electing an Independent any time soon. (0.00 / 0)

There are 49,000 Democrats in the district that showed up to vote in the primary, compared to 27000 Republicans.  You're telling me that there are more Independents in the district than Democrats?  

The best Ms. Casey can hope for is to keep Jenkins from winning the seat.  For that, I thank her for her candidacy!

"I was against NAFTA and CAFTA, and I'll be against SHAFTA."

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by: ryan @ Fri Mar 21, 2008 at 18:01:28 PM CDT

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Independents in the last election (0.00 / 0)

In the party primaries, independents could only vote in the Democrat primary, not the Republican primary-- this was very confusing and because of this most independents did not vote.

Independents DO vote in elections that they are not excluded from by the parties.  

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by: buras @ Sat Mar 22, 2008 at 09:33:34 AM CDT

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Yes, Independents vote ... (0.00 / 0)

But to assume that they will automatically vote for the Independent candidate is ludicrous.  If that was the case, then we should have seen seen all the independents this past fall vote for one of the independent candidates.  Obviously, this didn't happen, as Republican Governor PBJ received 699,000 votes, and Democratic Lt. Governor Mitch Landrieu received 701,000 votes.  Not all the of the votes they received were from members of their own party.  They obviously received the votes of Independent voters.  


"I was against NAFTA and CAFTA, and I'll be against SHAFTA."

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by: ryan @ Sat Mar 22, 2008 at 12:32:50 PM CDT

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When I say 'template'... (0.00 / 1)

What I mean is that from 1975 to 2008, 32 or so years, a suburban white male Republican, usually someone who appears to be a moderate "country-club" type, has held the seat.

In situations like these, irrespective of the actual demographics, somebody like Paul Sawyer could have walked into the seat as a 'gimme'.

I liken this to the perpetual Baton Rouge Mayor's race problem, where, every election for the past 30 years, we've ended up with three candidates: a) A white country-club type from South/Southeast Baton Rouge b) A black politician (usually a legislator) from North Baton Rouge c) The former mayor of Baker or Zachary. Every year, theres a runoff, and candidates B and C end up squaring off, and all of the white voters in the southeast end of the parish end up voting for the former mayor of Baker or Zachary.

Kip Holden broke the cycle, mainly by absorbing a lot of the white country club-type vote. And, let's face it, Kip has got immense skill tackling and satisfying the voting blocks.

I've often said (well, maybe not on here, but elsewhere) that people vote their identity first, and their party second.

So, in a district like ours, checking out the Democratic side, we have:
Cazayoux - The white guy from the rural area. Appeals to the rural and blue-collar white Democrats
Jackson - The black guy from North Baton Rouge. Appeals to a blue collar black Democrats. People from areas like North Baton Rouge.
Decuir - The black guy from South Baton Rouge. Appeals to white collar black Democrats, and younger white professionals.
Kopplin - The white guy from Downtown. Appeals to liberal voters and a lot of the same young white professionals that Decuir got.
Delatte - Appeals to friends of Joe Delatte.

Identity politics, we got 'em.

On the Republican side we have:
Woody Jenkins - The die-hard social conservative
Laurinda Calongne - No freaking clue, here. I didn't know 'crazy' was a demographic. I assume she's the 'security Mom' candidate.
Paul Sawyer - The country club guy.

Of course, Calongne and Sawyer split the suburban white vote, allowing Jenkins to sneak on in.

As for Ashley, I don't think there's a 'natural' constituency for her in most parts of Baton Rouge. I'm not really sure what she stands for, unless it's an alternative to party politics.

Of course, I (like most yellow dogs) have no real problem with party politics.

As you suggested, I checked out her website, and I still have no clue as to what she's about - or why anyone, aside from disaffected Republicans ought to vote for her.

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by: Matt D @ Mon Mar 24, 2008 at 21:04:15 PM CDT

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