LA-06: It's Crunch Time

by: ryan

Tue Apr 08, 2008 at 18:52:54 PM CDT

Aight, y'all ... in less than month, voters will head back to the polls and decide which candidate best represents Louisiana values. Don Cazayoux's campaign is putting the final touches on their sprint to the finish and they need our help to put them over the top. It's time to get their message out and make sure all the voters know that Don will stand up for Louisiana families.

Don has promised to stand up for Louisiana's middle class families by fighting to provide access to high quality, affordable health care, while at the same time making it easier for small businesses to provide health care to their employees. He's also committed to keeping the lower tax rates for middle class families, so they can keep what they earn, and reinvest it right here in Louisiana.

CQ Quarterly called this race a "No Clear Favorite," which is astonishing, as this district has been represented by a Republican for the last 30+ years. Even the Cook Political Report called a Cazayoux-Jenkins matchup "a perfect storm for Democrats":

Insiders on both sides agree the nomination of the current favorites - moderate Democratic state Rep. Don Cazayoux and GOP newspaper publisher Woody Jenkins - would present something akin to a perfect storm for Democrats in the May 3rd special general election.
Cazayoux, much like neighboring Democratic Rep. Charlie Melancon did in 2004, could very plausibly take advantage of GOP disunity and use his rural background to cut into the heart of the district's GOP base.

Folks, we can win this one. But we need to step it up. You can donate, or volunteer. In order to win this one, we all have to step it up.

Let's set a goal of $10,000 from the netroots. Right now, Don's raised $60,810 from 110 donors over at ActBlue.

Let's make it $70,810 in 7 days. I know we can do that.

Donate.

Volunteer.

ryan :: LA-06: It's Crunch Time

Tags: fundraising, Don Cazayoux, 2008, louisiana, LA-06, Woody Jenkins, (All Tags)

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LA-06: It's Crunch Time | 3 comments

Baton Rouge. . .Baton Rouge . . . Baton Rouge (0.00 / 0)

I wish Don luck, but he needs help in the city. White conservative Dems in the outer parishes are the most likely to vote R. Dem. voters in the city are likely to sit this one out because there is no candidate that generates any excitement. He must find a way (via ads, appearances or endoresements) to motivate democratic voters in the city.

by: wojeaux @ Wed Apr 09, 2008 at 13:18:29 PM CDT

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Right on... (0.00 / 0)

The magic combo for a Cazayoux defeat is as follows:
1) Most of Jackson's supporters (who I'd guess to be 90-95% African-American voters of all social leanings, geographic orientations, and economic backgrounds, and roughly 5-10% white progressives - in the old Kopplin turf) would have to stay home.

2) Calongne's people would have to suck it up and all vote for Jenkins.

3) All of the Republican leaning independents would have to come out of the woodwork and vote for Jenkins.

The other two possibilities are:
4) A lot of white conservative Dems would switch from Don to Woody in a general. I think this unlikely, as, at least from phonebanking, there were few who indicated they'd support Woody in a general.
5) The Paul Sawyer people emerge and vote for Jenkins. Since they didn't do this on Saturday, I doubt they'd do it in May.

Now, I think that 4 and 5 aren't worth worrying about, and Cazayoux could weather any 2 of the first 3, but all 3 and we're in trouble.

So, as you hinted:
Number 1 depends on African American turnout. Period. And, as you've suggested before, that depends largely on the existing GOTV apparatus. Cazayoux's people are smart enough to realize this. As for the turnout from progressive voters, I don't think they're going to come out in. I need to do some more per-precinct digging on this.

Number 2 strikes me as unlikely, as, well, Jenkins is viewed as an embarrassment to the Republican party. I'll give Jenkins at most 40% of their vote, and that's pushing it.

Number 3 seems unlikely, but that might be just because I haven't met a whole lot of Republican leaning independents. Maybe chalk that up to lack of personal experience.

by: Matt D @ Wed Apr 09, 2008 at 13:37:50 PM CDT

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Re: I wish Don luck ... (0.00 / 0)

How about giving Don your vote?

And telling your friends and relatives to get to the polls on Election Day - May 3rd? Better yet, drive them there!

"I was against NAFTA and CAFTA, and I'll be against SHAFTA."

by: ryan @ Wed Apr 09, 2008 at 14:20:43 PM CDT

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