(GOTV is what is going to win this ballgame, people. I've learned that one the hard way on some campaigns ... Daschle in '04, the overnight poll the night before had us up 2%, and we lost by 2% for a swing of 4%. Anything can happen. We must not let up ... we must call, knock, and drive everyone we know that will vote for Don to the polls on Saturday. In the words of a GOTV mentor, GO! FIGHT! WIN! - promoted by ryan)
Edited for clarity ... ryan
Well, from Survey USA comes a poll showing that Don Cazayoux, with 3 days until the voting begins is poised to win this district.
The poll shows the following spread (with Anzalone Liszt's 4/15 results):
Candidate
Poll %
Don Cazayoux
50% (49%)
Woody Jenkins
41% (42%)
Other/Undecided
8% (?)
The cross-tabs are VERY interesting:
Among white voters, the Republican has a 5-point advantage. Among black voters, the Democrat leads 5:1.
Among voters age 50+, the Republican has a 5-point advantage. Among voters younger than 50, the Democrat leads by 20.
Among men, the contest is effectively tied. Among women, the Democrat leads by 19.
19% of Republicans cross-over and vote Democrat. 18% of Democrats cross-over and vote Republican. Independents break 2:1 for the Democrat.
Among voters who say that illegal immigrants should be forced to leave the country, the Republican leads by 14. Among voters who say that illegals should be penalized but allowed to stay in the country, the Democrat leads by 34.
Among voters who say Congress should continue to fund the war in Iraq, the Republican leads by 51. Among voters who say Congress should reduce funding for the war, the Democrat leads by 41. And among voters who say Congress should stop funding the war altogether, the Democrat leads by 80.
Hell, even the favorability numbers are impressive ... Cazayoux has favorable/unfavorable of 43/28, while Jenkins has favorable/unfavorable numbers of 36/49.
While all this certainly boosts my spirits, I must throw some cold water on y'all, and it has to do with the weighting that Survey USA did:
Of the likely and actual voters in this poll, 42% identified themselves as Democrats, 42% identified themselves as Republican. 15% identified themselves as Independents. Turnout in a special election is difficult to forecast. The outcome of this special election, in particular, is turnout dependent. If voters are older and/or whiter than SurveyUSA here foresees, the Republican will outperform these numbers.
Contrary to rumors, Ashley Casey has not received many contributions ... not even from her favorite New Orleanian, John Georges. She donated $45,000 to her own campaign in the last week. That's why she has $46,000 to play with. She has a grand total of 7 folks, other than herself, who donated her cash. SEVEN! Yeah, she's a viable candidate, y'all!
Don's Cash On Hand is likely to go down to roughly 180,000 once he pays off the debts. Still, that's nearly four times what the others have to play with.
Woody ... man, it must be tough be the most hated Republican in Louisiana. No wonder he needs Freedoms Watch and Lane Grigsby to come his rescue. He can't raise enough money to put himself on the air.
It is not online yet, therefore I am paraphrasing, "election is May 3, it includes Cazayoux, Jenkins, and two independents, Ashley Casey (a serious challenger with ideas and some money)... I know each of these candidates personally, Casey, Cazayoux and Jenkins, and respect each of their abilities. But I do not feel strongly enough to endorse a candidate."
Nothing more or less about either Cazayoux or Jenkins.
Perhaps Independent candidate Ashley Casey can learn a thing or two from this ad, as she unbelievably puts her children's Webkinz user names on her campaign website!
Depending on how you look at it, the Cook Political Report downrated (GOP chances to retain this seat) or uprated (Democratic chances to win this seat) the race for this seat. [The Cook Political Report is subscription-only, sorry] To wit:
Insiders on both sides agree the nomination of the current favorites - moderate Democratic state Rep. Don Cazayoux and GOP newspaper publisher Woody Jenkins - would present something akin to a perfect storm for Democrats in the May 3rd special general election.
Cazayoux, much like neighboring Democratic Rep. Charlie Melancon did in 2004, could very plausibly take advantage of GOP disunity and use his rural background to cut into the heart of the district's GOP base. And in this political environment, Republicans would even be unwise to discount [Democratic state Rep.] Michael Jackson's bid were he to win the Democratic nomination. The presence of a third candidate in the general election, Independent former congressional aide Ashley Casey, could further endanger GOP chances of holding this seat. Casey has pledged to caucus with Republicans in the House if elected and has embarked on a decently funded effort to win the votes of moderate Republicans unsatisfied with the current crop of GOP candidates.
Yeah, Ashley Casey is an independent ... pledging to caucus with the GOP? Seriously? Expect to see more of this throughout the cycle, Republicans afraid to express their Republican bona-fides in fear that the GOP brand has taken a hit after 8 years of their dear leader, George W. Bush. Hell, one of Woody's first commercials out there don't even mention that he's a Republican!
The results of the March 8th special primary illustrated Republicans' problems in this race. Like many in the South, this Baton Rouge-based district's track record at the federal level (it gave President Bush 59 percent in 2004) flies in the face of its party registration breakdown (49.6 percent Democratic to 28.1 percent Republican). But in the special primary, turnout appeared much more reflective of party registration than federal-level performance. The fact that 47,632 Democrats and just 29,875 Republicans turned out to vote is evidence of a serious enthusiasm gap between the parties. Of course, it is difficult to gauge how the district's fundamentals have changed since Hurricane Katrina added tens of thousands of new residents to the Baton Rouge area.
Here's the Cook Report's bottom line on this race:
Republicans are rightly worried about losing their second consecutive seat in a special election. But this turbulent race is not yet in the bag for Democrats, and just how willing the cash-strapped NRCC will be to spend its way out of trouble remains an open question.
