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(There is some confusion as to what the Coook Political Report did. From a Democratic perspective, it upgraded the race, meaning that there is a stronger chance for a Democratic candidate to win the seat. From a Repewblican perspective, they downgraded the race, as there is a stronger chance the GOP can lose the seat)
Charlie Cook, the longtime publisher of the The Cook Political Report, an independent, non-partisan newsletter that analyzes elections and campaigns for the US House of Representatives, US Senate, Governors and President; has downrated the LA-06 race from Leans Republican to Likely Republican.
From behind the subscription wall, here is the shortened analysis (due to copyright concerns):
National Democrats believe they have found a candidate who can put this GOP-leaning Baton Rouge district in play in what is likely to be a May 3rd special election ... A special primary election will be held March 8 th , and a special primary runoff is likely to follow on April 5th.
That candidate is eight-year Democratic state Rep. Don Cazayoux, a 41 year-old, pro-life former prosecutor from rural Point Coupee Parish who sports A ratings from the NRA. He has raised twice as much money as the next leading Democrat between the beginning of the year and mid-February. But he starts out the primary race with a relatively low profile in the Baton Rouge population center of the district and must first get by three other serious Democratic contenders for the nomination, two of whom are African-American. An April runoff is likely.
This district's PVI of R+7 would suggest a real uphill climb for Democrats, but the district's political character has not truly been measured since Hurricane Katrina added thousands of new, mostly black residents to the Baton Rouge area.
The real GOP headache in this race is the possibility of a Cazayoux- [Woody] Jenkins match up, which is far from certain at this stage. National Republicans worry that if Jenkins were to prevail in a low-turnout primary or runoff with the aid of his devoted supporters, his appeal beyond the district's religious conservative base would be limited in a race against a Democrat. If Cazayoux or another Democrat were to make inroads with moderate, less socially oriented Republicans and mobilize the district's black voters - African-Americans are just about a third of the population here - it is easy to see how this could turn into a clear steal opportunity. For now, this race moves to the Lean Republican column.
It seems that Cook sees this race as "leans Republican" so long as State Rep. Don Cazayoux gets out of the Democratic primary, which is being held next Saturday, March 8th. I think a run-off is likely, which means that all the candidates and campaigns should work their tails off, organize their voters, and make sure their voters get out to vote. And we'll what happens when the dust settles on March 8th.
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