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By now, y'all have heard that Congressman Charlie Melancon voted against the health care reform bill that passed the House on Saturday night. He ostensibly voted against it because of the "costs" of the bill. I'll wager the "costs" of the bill that forced Charlie to vote against the bill are not the monetary kind that the country will undergo, but the perceived costs of a "Yea" vote for ol' Charlie Boy himself.
Had he voted "Yea" on the bill, we'd be seeing attacks ads from here on out on Charlie's "Yes" vote, painting him as a crony of Obama. That's the going to be a typical GOP attack for the next 3 years, and we'll still see them here despite Charlie's "nay" vote on this specific bill.
What really galls me about the vote is that Charlie Boy showed he lacks the courage of his convictions. Even as he voted against the bill, he still repeated bland talking points about health care reform:
"Together, we will find a way to make health care more affordable and accessible for all Louisianians, and bring down the rising cost of health care in this country."
Really? How would he do that? By doing nothing? Because that's what his vote signified - let's not do anything. The House bill would reduce the deficit, but that doesn't matter to a Blue Dog that's scared of David Vitter and his allies on the right.
That is why ol' Charlie Boy is going to lose the Senate race. He's too scared of David Vitter to stand and fight for the 800,000 Louisianans that do not have health insurance.
I make this argument because I believe, as many others do, that 2010 is going to be a base election. In other words, the candidate that does a better job of growing his/her base prior to the election, and then gets more of them out, will win. Currently, Democrats can count on roughly 780,000 voters to vote for their candidate in a statewide election, regardless of whether that candidate is white or black. In the last two Senate elections - 2004 and 2008 - the victor received a minimum of 943,000 votes and the losers received a maximum of 867,000 votes (John Kennedy, 2008). While both Senators Landrieu and Vitter won by more than 100,000 votes, let's assume that it's going to take roughly 867,000 votes to win. That means that Charlie Boy is going to have to find an additional 87,000 voters to win this election.
It is my belief that if ol' Charlie Boy continues to vote like Vitter would, most folks are gonna say, what's the difference? In other words, why take Republican-lite when they can have the real thing?
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