I write today with mixed feelings about this campaign season. While I am elated that this nation has seen fit to send Barack Obama to the White House, I am not surprised that Louisiana did not put her 9 Electoral Votes in Mr. Obama's column. I am however, looking into buying a "Don't Blame Me, I Voted For Obama" bumper sticker for my car when I go out of state in it.
I am elated that Senator Mary Landrieu won her campaign relatively easily. Did you notice that you can drop Orleans Parish from the totals, and she STILL would have won? This means that no Democrat running a state-wide campaign from here on out should even think about not running a state-wide field operation. That field operation, which contacted many Democrats for the first time in years(!), gave Senator Landrieu her impressive margin.
I am not surprised that Jim Harlan lost in LA-01. It's unfortunate, but the results of this election show that there is much, much, much more work to be done. I don't anticipate seeing a Democrat elected in that district for some time to come.
I am incredibly upset about the result in LA-06. I'll have more to write on this one later, but suffice it to say that I hope someone out there sees fit to give Mr. Cassidy hell for the next two years by starting a blog marking his every move for the next two years, to make it a little easier for any Democrat that decides to run against Mr. Cassidy in two years in terms of opposition research. Here's one such example of a fine blog tracking a Republican Member of Congress.
I am disappointed in the result in LA-07. But I am optimistic about State Senator Don Cravins, Jr. I think he has a future in the Democratic Party of this state since he's only 38, and the fact that he started the campaign LATE. Hopefully, if he decides to run again, he'll start the fundraising process in January, and continue to meet with voters throughout the 7th District during the two years.
One of the things that stands out to me about this election season is that the candidates that tried to out-Republican the real Republicans in their races LOST. Mr. Harlan, Mr. Cazayoux, Mr. Cravins, Jr ... all ran ads emphasizing their pro-life, pro-gun views. That's all good and fine ONCE.
In LA-01, all of Mr. Harlan's ads mentioned that he was pro-life and pro-gun.
In LA-06, quite a few of Mr. Cazayoux's ads mentioned his conservative views. This is NOT a completely conservative district. Yes, the voters are culturally conservative, but they will vote for a pro-union Democrat. A majority of them did on Tuesday.
In LA-07, Mr. Cravins ran four ads - 2 focusing on him ... one on his conservative views, and the other on how he's a church-going man.
The Republican playbook is to smear Democrats on the cultural issues. There is nothing we can do about that. They're going to do it even when it is obvious that the Democratic candidate has the same views on the cultural issues as the Republican does! Focus on why you're a Democrat. Remind people that there are other issues to consider ... like the economy, health care, the environment, and on and on. And do it not only on the stump, where few voters see you, but also on television.
The results in our congressional elections affirm Howard Dean's message of 2004: If voters are given a choice between a Republican and Republican-lite, they'll choose the real Republican every single time.
A couple of observations ... LA-01 needs to be redrawn before we can consider it being competitive.
LA-07 ... Cravins did a great job for a first time candidate that started LATE. If he decides to run in 2010, he's got to start in January with the fundraising, and make sure he has $1 million to drop, if not more.
LA-06 ... Congratulations, Mr. Cassidy. You can thank Michael Jackson and L. Lane Grigsby for your victory. If you add Jackson and Cazayoux's total, you get 11,623 votes more than Cassidy, and I'm sure that 90% of Jackson's total would have gone to Cazayoux.
The difference in this race that all of Jim's debt is to himself. The Mistake's debt, on the other hand, is to his campaign staff, as well as political consultants, and a printing company.
On top of that, Scalise is running one of the sleaziest ads ever seen in politics ... against the Democratic Presidential nominee, Barack Obama. Why doesn't he simply stick to the issues that matter to the people of LA-01, which includes hurricane protection? You wouldn't know it by visiting Scalise's website.
The DCCC has named Democratic contender Jim Harlan to their Red to Blue list with 21 days left in the election!
The DCCC Chairman, Rep. Van Hollen, (D-MD) had this to say about Jim's campaign:
"Jim Harlan is running a powerful campaign and is committed to fighting for the critical needs of the people in his district such as hurricane protection and better energy policies. With less than 21 days to make his case for change to voters, the Red to Blue program will give Jim Harlan the financial and structural edge to be even more competitive in November."
Folks ... if you live in LA-01, this is it. Less than 21 days before the election. If you wanna party hearty the night of November 4th, then you've got to leave it all on the field. That means, if you've got some spare change, donate! If you've got some time to spare, volunteer!
Talk to your neighbors. Talk to your friends. Talk to your co-workers. Tell them that this is literally the best chance y'all have in LA-01 to elect a Representative that will fight for y'all, rather than use it to springboard to another elective office.
There has been lots of Louisiana blogosphere discussion today about the fact that the "Mistake on the Lake", err, Steve Scalise and John "Wanna Be" Kennedy are busy attacking the Democratic nominee for President in their ad campaigns.
Jeffrey says it's not wise to claim it's a stupid move because it may work. He's right. But so are E and Oyster, who state that it reeks of desperation. For the Mistake to run ads trying to link Democratic contender Jim Harlan to Barack Obama in a district that gave Bush 70% of the vote against Kerry in 2004 is a move that reeks of desperation.
I've finally got the video of the "forum" attended by both Steve Scalise and Jim Harlan. I find it interesting that Scalise directs his campaign to go on the attack, but is afraid to debate his opponent in a real debate that goes for longer than 20 minutes!
This spring, once the Mistake On the Lake, errrr, Steve Scalise secured the Republican nomination, he decided he didn't need to face the voters for the general election. So he skipped a scheduled League of Women Voters (LWV) debate with Democratic nominee Gilda Reed in May.
It seems that he's at it again, as the League of Women Voters of St. Tammany Parish plans to host a debate between Steve Scalise and Democratic nominee Jim Harlan later this month. Mr. Harlan has agreed to debate, but the LWV hasn't set a date yet, thanks to the failure of Steve Scalise to respond to several phone call requests from the LWV.
Mr. Harlan has also accepted a Press Club of New Orleans invitation to debate. The question remains whether Mr. Scalise will even bother to face his opponent or the voters. It'd be nice to see if Mr. Scalise believes that the people have a right to hear the views of candidates for public office. But I'm betting he'd rather go to Alaska to hunt some moose and learn how to field-dress one from the Barracuda herself.
This is already over, folks. Harlan's gonna win this in a walk. With 478 of 506 precincts reporting, it's official ... Jim Harlan has received more votes than Steve Scalise did in the May general election:
"The Louisiana Republican Party opened an office for their candidates Saturday right next door to the Covington headquarters of businessman Jim Harlan, whose successful campaign for Congress is threatening the GOP's three-decade hold on the First District seat."
Might the Louisiana Republicans be looking gain some popularity by having their office right next to the hard-charging Jim Harlan's campaign office, who has whittled a 53 point gap down to 11 points as of two weeks ago?
Or might their motives be a tad more sinister? I'll keep y'all posted.
The Advocate reports that Vice-President Dick Cheney will be leaving his unidentified bunker to raise money at fundraisers for Republican candidates Steve Scalise and Bill Cassidy on Monday.
Cheney's first stop will be in Metairie to help out at a Scalise fundraiser. The Scalise campaign that continues to insist it's not a close race. Then why do they have Vice-President Dick Cheney coming in to raise some money for them?
"His comments are going to be on behalf of our campaign," Cassidy said. "It is not a public event."
If you're running for Congress, don't we deserve to know who you're associating with, and what folks speaking on your campaign's behalf are saying?
Now, since Cheney has been one of the most secretive Vice Presidents we've ever had, one would normally assume that he wanted the events closed to the public. Apparently, that's not the case:
"Cheney will be speaking at both events, but they are closed to the media and public at the request of the campaigns," [Cheney spokeswomen Megan] Mitchell said.
Guess they don't want to see pictures of Cheney and them plastered all over the news.
The bill included tax break extensions for folks suffering from Hurricane Ike. In case y'all didn't know, LA-01 suffered from some pretty bad flooding during Ike. But the bill didn't include one parish from LA-01 as being eligible for those tax breaks.
Yet Mr. Scalise chose to get political attention for himself by railing against Wall Street, and voting Nay on the bailout. He even took the time to call into WWL on Thursday and talk with constituents about his opposition to the bailout.
Had he been doing his job as an advocate for LA-01, he would have fought to get LA-01 parishes included in the Hurricane Ike tax breaks. Some of y'all might say that he was opposed to the bill, so why would he include things in it? Folks, while on WWL on Thursday, he stated that he knew the bill would pass. If he knew it would pass, you would think he'd try to help out his own constituents, no? That is what we sent him there to do, right?
Late last week, after we learned that Harlan had closed a 53 point gap to 11 points, the National Republican Congressional Committee hid the news that their Chairman, Tom Cole (R-Ok), would be making a visit to stump with the Mistake by the Lake, er, Steve Scalise, in this competitive district.
Now we find out from Mr. Cole's spinmeister, Brendan Buck, that Cole is coming to Louisiana primarily because of the LA-06 race because "that race is tight." But the fact remains that Cole is making a visit to shore up Scalise's support.
I finally find the Scalise campaign response to the Harlan poll ... in LaPolitics Weekly, a subscription-only newsletter written by Republican apologist John Maginnis. Scalise spokesman Jason Hebert doesn't even respond to the poll's findings, but rather goes on the attack:
"I think this poll lacks credibility because Jim Harlan, a Barack Obama delegate, already lied about Steve Scalise's record and his background in a desperate attempt to fool voters and give Barack Obama another supporter in Congress."
Nice to know that the Scalise campaign has already ceded the Presidency to Barack Obama! If the Scalise campaign had the money to conduct a poll, they would have released contrary findings by now. Since they haven't done so, coupled with the fact that the spokesman just gave us spin when asked about the poll, means they know the race is "competitive."
So, if you've got time over the next five weeks, go to the Harlan campaign website, and sign up to volunteer!
Louisiana's first district has long been considered by the BSM and the pundits to be Republican-ville that many Democrats didn't even bother running for Congress. That began to change in 2004, when 5 challengers stepped up to the plate, and in 2006, when 3 more challengers stepped up as part of the 50-state strategy.
This spring, a Netroots Challenger stepped up ... Gilda Reed, and she criss-crossed the district, putting some 25,000 miles on her van in a valiant attempt to run a winning grassroots campaign.
Now, we're finally starting to see dividends from running Democrats in this district ... in the form of a poll done by the Kitchens Group on LA-01 for Democratic challenger Jim Harlan:
Candidate
Poll % (July #'s)
Steve Scalise (R)
42% (68%)
Jim Harlan (D)
31% (15%)
Undecided
26% (17%)
HOLY COW! In a span of 6 weeks, Jim has closed the gap by 42 points, starting from 53 down to a mere 11!
Scalise is in a very precarious position, as 42% for an incumbent with less than 6 weeks to go is not a good place to be.
Even worse for Scalise, his favorable/unfavorable numbers have tanked from 61%/13% to 44%/24%!
But our work is NOT YET DONE, Louisiana Democrats ... we have less than 6 weeks to go ... 40 days and counting down. If you're not registered, or you're not sure, go here to find out!
If you live in LA-01 or nearby, and you want to help Jim take down the Mistake On The Lake, you can sign up to volunteer online or you can call 985-635-4599 and ask what you can do to help elect an independent-minded pragmatic go-getter in Jim Harlan, rather than your typical Republican who doesn't care about the district enough to take the lead in Congress on hurricane protection for the communities on Lake Pontchartrain.
As we head into the final stretch of the cycle, the DCCC announces its fifth round of candidates who have earned a spot in the highly competitive Red to Blue program; the next round of Emerging Races; and, the first round of Races to Watch.
NEWEST EMERGING RACES
(IA-04) Becky Greenwald
(IL-13) Scott Harper (LA-01) Jim Harlan
(SC-01) Linda Ketner
(TX-10) Larry Joe Doherty
This comes on the heels of the latest Harlan ad, and taken together, it shows the voters of LA-01 that we have a Democrat that will be able to go tit-for-tat on the air this campaign cycle in LA-01.
On an unrelated note, but certainly noteworthy, this brings the number of Louisiana Congressional races the DCCC is taking an active interest in to 4:
The ad just released by Jim Harlan's campaign is titled "Lake Mistake." The title is a play on the old Cleveland Stadium on Lake Erie up in Ohio ... they called it the Mistake by the Lake. Well, Steve Scalise is the current Mistake by the Lake. Wondering just what the hell I'm talking about? Watch the video ... it's going up on the air either tonight or tomorrow:
I hadn't thought of this, but a press release put out by Jim Harlan's campaign makes me wonder ... if the reason that Steve Scalise is on a Congressional junket to Alaska to publicize the Republican dream of drilling in the Alaska National Wildlife Refuge is because he is looking to raise some dough from the oil interests.
After all, he's got some $211,000 in the bank, but he also has over $192,000 in debts to settle, which means that he's got a mere $19,000 to play with right now. That $192,000 is not personal funds that he donated to his campaign, but money he owes to vendors.
This past weekend's edition of the Times Picayune's On The Hill has this little blurb about our drunken oil Congressman from LA-01, Steve Scalise:
Rep. Steve Scalise, R-Jefferson, is joining nine other House freshmen on a trip to Alaska this weekend to examine the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, which he and other Republicans want to open to oil exploration. The freshmen are being led by House Republican Leader John Boehner of Ohio. Some Democrats have said the plan will do nothing to lower prices because it would be a long time before any oil flowed, but Scalise said he thinks oil development could begin in as soon as three years.
Opening America's coastal waters to oil drilling, as John McCain urged in an address Tuesday, is unlikely to provide Americans with more oil for at least seven to 10 years.
That's the estimate from the American Petroleum Institute, the oil industry trade group.
Never mind that WeCanSolveIt Chairman Al Gore outlined the current crisis we face so much better than anyone else out there in a speech to Netroots Nation last weekend:
No, the debts listed for both candidates are NOT mis-prints. The difference between the two, however is stark: Harlan owes that money to himself, as he loaned his campaign that money. Scalise, on the other hand owes that money to other people ... staff, vendors, and even the caterer for his victory party, to whom he owes some $9,000. Must have been one hell of a party.
Mr. Troy Carter is not a serious candidate. The debt is partly from his failed run back in 2006, where he placed fourth in the jungle primary behind the Republican. I've corrected the amount raised this quarter from his FEC report. If you click on his name, it'll bring you to his July Quarterly FEC report, where he reports NO money raised this quarter. But if you take a look at his April Quarterly report, you'll see that he only reported some $2,188 raised in the election cycle to date column, and nothing again in the this cycle to date column. Mr. Carter, please find someone to teach your staff how to fill out the reports properly!
Mr. Lee has raised an impressive amount. As one of twothe only viable West Banker's in the race, he has a good shot of taking second place in primary, and making it to the runoff, so long as he can turn out a majority of the West Bank for him.
The debts that Mr. Jefferson owes are personal debts of his to MBNA America, American Express, Dryades Savings Bank, and Liberty Bank, as well as some to himself. Hasn't the man ever heard of fiscal responsibility?
Well, with Ms. Moreno (potentially Mrs. Bernazzani?) making a run for LA-02 but putting signs all over Uptown, including in the LA-01 portion of New Orleans, I wonder if she's really serious about making this run. Is this perhaps a prelude to running for Mayor of our fair city in 2010, especially now that Mr. Bernazzani is prohibited from doing so by the City Charter. Oh yeah, I nearly forgot ... the FEC doesn't know what party Ms. Moreno is a member of. If you enter Moreno into the field on that page just linked to, it'll bring you to all the Moreno's that have filed with them. The first one is our very own Helena Moreno ... the UNK after LA means unknown!
The debt is money that Mr. Richmond gave his campaign. For a first-time candidate for the U.S. House, the first quarter fundraising for Mr. Richmond is impressive. Almost $200,000 in the bank. Right now, he has to be one of the favorites to oust Congressman Jefferson.
There are two candidates that have yet to file an FEC report, as they are not required to do so at this time, as they were not raising money prior to the June 30th deadline - former Nagin aide Kenya Smith, and City Councilman James Carter. As reader SM points out, James Carter is a West Banker himself. That's the reason for the changes in the blurb about Byron Lee.
LA-03
There's no need to keep tabs on Congressman Melancon's fund-raising, as he has no race. He does have a cool $1,042,583.14 sitting in the bank. There is speculation that he will parlay that money to make a run against Sinator Vitter, although my colleague Oyster points out a very, very disappointing video of the erstwhile Congressman taken over the weekend.
As of 11 PM CST on July 14th, not one Republican candidate for the House in Louisiana has filed their July quarterly. Five of the 18 Democrats running have filed their reports. Without further adieu, here are those five fundraising reports:
LA-01
Jim Harlan has filed his report. Vinnie Mendoza, a perpetual candidate, has not.
No, the debts is not a mis-print. Mr. Harlan donated his campaign $525,000. For the first time in recent memory, money will not be a reason for the Democratic candidate in LA-01 to lose. It will be because the campaign didn't do a good job. I doubt that will be the case, as the campaign manager for Mr. Harlan is the same campaign manager that helped Travis Childers
LA-02
There are 8 Democrats running in the primary, including incumbent Congressman Bill Jefferson. Only 2 of the 8 have filed their FEC reports so far. They are:
Mr. Troy Carter is not a serious candidate. The debt is partly from his failed run back in 2006, where he placed fourth in the jungle primary behind the Republican. I've corrected the amount raised this quarter from his FEC report. If you click on his name, it'll bring you to his July Quarterly FEC report, where he reports NO money raised this quarter. But if you take a look at his April Quarterly report, you'll see that he only reported some $2,188 raised in the election cycle to date column, and nothing again in the this cycle to date column. Mr. Carter, please find someone to teach your staff how to fill out the reports properly!
The debt is money that Mr. Richmond gave his campaign. For a first-time candidate for the U.S. House, the first quarter fundraising for Mr. Richmond is impressive. Almost $200,000 in the bank. Right now, he has to be one of the favorites to oust Congressman Jefferson.
Since Charlie won re-election by acclamation, as no Republican bothered to file to run against him, he is a prime candidate for the netroots' Use It or Lose It Campaign. He can easily afford to give 30% of his cash on hand to the DCCC so they can pump even more money into LA-01, LA-04, LA-06 and LA-07 to help us elect the Democratic candidates in those districts.
LA-04
There are 4 Democrats running for the nomination in this district - Willie Banks, Paul Carmouche, Artis "Doc" Cash and John Milkovich. Thus far, only Mr. Banks has filed his July Quarterly FEC report.
The debt is money that Mr. Banks loaned his campaign. He's having a hard time raising cash, presumably because he's running against a VERY well-known Democrat in that district, the Caddo Parish District Attorney, Paul Carmouche, who has served in that capacity for I believe 30 years.
Louisiana's first district has long been considered by the BSM and the pundits to be Republican-ville that many Democrats didn't even bother running for Congress. That began to change in 2004, 
