This is Part Two of a series delving into the relationships of the newest GOP power brokers in Baton Rouge. You can find Part One here.
So, why, when presented with Daniel Claitor, an attorney with deep roots in Baton Rouge, Laurinda Calongne, a prominent healthcare exec, and Lee Domingue, a relative newcomer to Baton Rouge with gobs of baggage (bankruptcies, lawsuits, sketchy business deals, and a tendency to not actually vote), why did McCollister (and Jindal) back Domingue?
But, the missing link in this story isn't really Rolfe. It's Julio Melara, who is the co-owner of the Business Report and the publisher of 225.
The least common denominator here is that Rolfe McCollister, and Julio Melara, are both regulars at Healing Place Church (HPC), South Baton Rouge's fastest growing megachurch, where Domingue is a 'Pastoral Vision Advisor'.
Rolfe and Julio's involvement in HPC explain the number of glowing articles about HPC and its pastor Dino Rizzo in both the BRBR and 225, and it's probably less surprising that the BRBR selected Lee Domingue as its Businessperson of the Year for 2008. It seems that Rolfe and Julio were prepping their readers for Domingue's eventual run.
Okay, so there's really nothing fundamentally wrong with McCollister or Melara backing a guy with whom they attends church, although I would have figured Rolfe for a mainline Protestant type (or at least a St. Aloysius-style Catholic). I had simply assumed Melara to be Catholic as well.
As it turns out Melara and Domingue might be described, in internet parlance, as BFF. They EVEN vacation together, here's them in Australia in 2007 on the right:
And, here's HPC's boss Dino Rizzo talking on his friendship with Melara and Domingue.
And, look at this: Melara and Domingue both sit on the board of Omni Bank.
And, woah, here's Melara bragging on Domingue's book, Pearls of the King.
That Melara supports his very flawed best friend doesn't bother me. But, his and Rolfe's unflagging support of someone they have religious, business, and personal ties does call into question their collective judgment and the editorial biases of their mags.
We're witnessing, it seems, the emergence of a group of men who are all tied through Healing Place Church. They are McCollister, Melara, Domingue, Jindal's Chief of Staff Timmy Teepell, MAPP Construction's Mike Polito (also an OMNI bank board member), and a couple of others.
They go to church together, sit on bank boards together, run real estate interests together, which in turn run construction interests together, and then flog their developments through their magazines (The Business Report, 225, and 10/12. And, the final part of their plan? Get their own elected to public office.
I think it's fair to say that although the Business Report and 10/12 provide pretty decent business coverage, and 225 offers some suspect restaurant reviews, we can safety assume the BRBR, 225, and 10/12 not to be 'objective' sources of news for anything political.
Laurinda Calongne, who challenged the good ol' boy network within the Louisiana GOP this spring, and made the primary run-off, only to fall short against Louis "Woody" Jenkins, has announced that she will NOT be a candidate for Congress this fall.
Rather, she will start a group called the Conservative Leadership Council, which aims to recruit young conservatives to run for office, with a particular emphasis on conservative women. In short, she wants to be, perhaps, an Emily's List for the right?
This is very good news for State Senator Bill Cassidy, who can now spend his money and train his fire against Woody Jenkins for the next three months all by his lonesome. Will Woody survive the carnage headed his way? Only time will tell.
Just a little blurb about the race that is shaping up in LA-06 on the Republican side:
Woody Jenkins is widely expected to run yet again. I'm guessing he's banking on higher turnout to push him over the top in the fall, as it is a presidential election year. He also put out a robo-call throughout the district late last week.
Laurinda Calongne is also expected to run again after coming up short in the run-off to Woody in April. Her campaign manager put out this statement to the Advocate:
It [will] take people with real business experience to solve the country's economic problems.
Uh, yeah ... I think the "real" business people led us down this economic morass, Mrs. Calongne. Let's let the people help figure out how to get us out of this mess.
Bill Cassidy, a State Senator from Baton Rouge is also expected to run. The biggest problem he will have is that he just got elected to the State Senate two years ago. He has little legislative experience to run on, so it will be interesting to see if the Republican voters of this district decide to back an inexperienced candidate for Congress over a candidate that has served over 20 years in the State Legislature in Woody.
Here are the results of the Democratic Primary with 512 of 512 precincts reporting:
Candidate
Votes
% of Vote
Don Cazayoux
19,803
56.80%
Michael Jackson
15,063
43.20%
It's over. Don Cazayoux is the Democratic nominee. I look forward to Cazayoux v. Jenkins.
And the Repewblican primary:
Candidate
# of Votes
% of Votes
Laurinda Calongne
9,327
38.06%
"Woody" Jenkins
15,177
61.94%
Oh, goody, Republicans choose Woody!
Here's what impresses me about the Democratic turnout ... Mr. Jackson, with a mere 42% of the Democratic vote, nearly beat Woody ...
Here are the total numbers of voters for both parties:
The title of the article in Roll Call, (subscription required) is New Louisiana Poll Worries Republicans. As arubyan noted, the poll shows Woody Jenkins losing by three points to Don Cazayoux, which Roll Call notes:
[Is] not great math to begin with in a district that gave President Bush a 19-point margin of victory in the 2004 presidential campaign and repeatedly sent former Rep. Richard Baker (R) to Congress by large margins.
It gets better for Don when you get into the cross-tabs, but I'd love to know what the margin of error is, so take this with a grain of salt:
Men 55 and older preferred Cazayoux 51 percent to 38 percent, voters who turned out in the special March primary would vote for Cazayoux 53 percent to 39 percent and those voters who said they are definitely going to vote in the special preferred Cazayoux by nine points.
Now, polls are obviously a snapshot in time, and anything can happen between now and the general election, which is being held on May 3rd, so this thing is still fluid. You might see the country club Republicans say, well, we gave it a shot, now we have to make sure we send a GOPer to Congress, so we'll hold our noses and put Woody in there. And the African-American vote may not come out for Don if he wins the runoff. That reminds me, Don still has to win the run-off against his friend Michael Jackson on Saturday.
I expect to see a repeat of what happened in the primary in terms of where the candidates got their votes:
Cazayoux will likely run up the score in the outlying parishes and try to keep it close enough in Baton Rouge that he wins.
Jackson, obviously, will be attempting to run up the score here in Baton Rouge, while garnering enough votes in the outlying parishes to put him over the top.
The runoff is anyone's game ... with the GOTV operation of the campaigns holding the chances of victory for both candidates. I know that both campaigns are busy calling voters, as this GOTV (Get Out The Vote) time, with the voting starting in less than 48 hours.
Today's Advocate published an article with all of the candidates for the run-off talking about how they would vote on bills related to stimulating our economy if elected to Congress. The Advocate set it all up with this:
The Federal Reserve recently bailed out the nation's fifth-biggest investment firm. Housing foreclosures have skyrocketed, and the number of jobless in America is at a five-year high. Gas prices have soared past the $3-per-gallon mark.
We'll start off with the Democratic candidates, going alphabetically:
Don Cazayoux
Cazayoux told the Advocate he had "concerns" about the recent bailout of Bear Stearns, but also said that it may have been necessary. He also expressed support for looking into helping folks who are at risk of losing their homes:
We've reached crisis levels, so we do need to look at the process of intervening," Cazayoux
said.
I have those same concerns - why the hell should the government bail out the money managers who made some incredibly stupid bets and not the folks affected by the banks attempting to cover their incredibly stupid bets?
That's what playing the stock market is ... betting. And with sub-prime mortgages, the riskiest types of mortgage out there, the banks attempted to leverage their risk by selling groups of the mortgages on the stock market. When the banks couldn't cover the When the mortgages weren't being paid, due to the rising cost of the mortgages ... the banks couldn't cover their bets. Hence the bailout of Bear Stearns.
I would be very concerned if Cazayoux said that we can bail out the banks, which is unprecedented in American history, but not the people affected by the rising mortgage costs. My understanding of the mortgage crisis is that folks are being hit with rising monthly payments, and would rather lose the house than stop eating or paying for medical prescriptions and the like.
I LOVE this idea:
Cazayoux would encourage alternative fuel use by offering tax incentives to companies and people who use alternative energy sources.
He authored a bill in the state Legislature that would have provided tax incentives to homeowners who bought energy-efficient appliances. The measure didn't pass.
The tax breaks for alternative-fuel developers could be paid for by rolling back tax breaks for the top 1 percent of the nation's income earners, Cazayoux said.
"We're an innovative country, and we need to encourage alternative energy," he said.
I think we can find other ways to pay for this ... like bringing the troops home? Eliminating or reducing the tax breaks we give to oil companies, as they are making record profits?
Michael Jackson
Mr. Jackson also expressed concern about the recent federal government bailout of Bear Stearns:
"I feel very uncomfortable with the government stepping in because that's not the way business should be conducted. But it's probably the only way to stem the tide."
Mr. Jackson goes further than Mr. Cazayoux in saying that he would support the Democratic proposals in the House and the Senate (I believe in the Senate it's a bill written by Senator Dodd of CT) that would provide help to those with home mortgages that are in danger of foreclosure:
"Home ownership is the foundation of the economy. It's the least we can do to provide a backstop for owners to retain their homes."
Mr. Jackson also supports providing incentives to those who would help wean our economy off of foreign oil:
"You have to offer some incentives. It would be rational of us to ask companies that a portion of their profits go to developing alternative fuels."
Now for the Republicans ... Lord, they just don't get it. They still believe in voodoosupply-side tax cut-o-nomics. This is the mistaken belief that tax cuts to the wealthy, which is essentially what the Bush Tax Cuts both in 2001 and 2003 were, help stimulate the economy because those people provide the jobs. More often than not, those people just stick the money in their savings account, or go buy a foreign-made goods, so the American worker never sees the benefit of their spending. We've had 20 years to see how their tax cut-o-nomics works - 8 years under Reagan, 4 years under Bush, and 8 more years under Bush II - and at the end of the first 12 years (as Bush I followed Reagan), we needed a Democratic President to come in and clean up the mess left by the Republicans. Now, after 8 more years of tax-cut-o-nomics, we need a Democratic President to come in and clean up the mess yet again. Can we please stop voting for Republicans to occupy the White House?
The issue with tax-cut-o-nomics is that all Republicans everywhere believe in tax cuts for economic stimulus. This is evident when you see a country-club Republican like Laurinda Calongne and a Bible-thumper like Woody Jenkins agree on the need for tax cuts.
Let's start with Laurinda Calongne:
Ms. Calongne sees the stock market's bounce in the wake of the Bear Stearns bailout as proof that the bailout was necessary:
"It encourages people to invest."
However, she agrees with Republican nominee John McCain that there should not be any help whatsoever for ordinary Americans caught in the housing mortgage crisis:
"A mortgage, by definition, is backed by the value of your home. Everyone involved in the housing situation needs to take responsibility."
I see that compassionate conservatism is back with a vengeance these days. But I digress. Here comes the tax cuts plan:
Calongne, who owns a consulting firm, said making the 2001 and 2003 Bush tax cuts permanent would be particularly helpful to small businesses like hers. Small businesses, she noted, provide most of the nation's jobs.
Calongne said the tax cuts can be paid for by reducing wasteful government spending. She said she recently saw a report by the federal Office of Management and Budget that listed 100 wasteful federal programs.
Does that report by the OMB list all the wasteful spending to the private security groups like Blackwater???
Woody Jenkins
Ahh, we have a free marketer here ... in discussing the bailout of Bear Stearns, he states:
"It's unprecedented, and we may be going down a slippery slope. Ultimately the free market has to be allowed to work."
He's also a compassionate conservative ... as he does not believe in helping those hit by the mortgage crisis. But he is for making the Bush Tax Cuts permanent:
"Making the Bush tax cuts permanent would be most helpful. That's going to do more to stimulate the economy than anything."
So, can the two Republicans running explain to me just what happened after President Clinton raised taxes on the wealthy 1% all the way back in 1993? Was it a disastrous thing to do, as claimed by every single Republican in the Congress back then, who all voted against the Clinton plan? Or did it lead the biggest peacetime expansion of the economy this nation has ever seen? You tell me.
Damn, that's a huge fundraising disparity, though not surprising in light of the all the good reports for Mr. Cazayoux from the Cook Political Report. However, if Jackson wins the run-off, his campaign will truly be the little engine that could.
Again, I should point out that Ms. Calongne is giving herself most of the money she is raising - having thrown some $264,000 of her own money into the race.
The Advocate published an article today on how the Repewblican candidates in the Repewblican primary are trashing national Democrats.
Let's deal with the easy one first:
"It's really about money being wasted in Washington. Regardless of who's in it, I'm the kind of person who will call the White House."
Ms. Calongne is talking about her somewhat stupid spoof on the 3 A.M. ad of Hillary Clinton's. It's a dumb ad for the following reason - the Democrats have not been running up the nation's deficit over the last 7 years ... that would be our current occupant of the White House - George W. Bush. Matter of fact, when the last Democratic President left office, he left the nation with a surplus, which President Bush managed to turn into a mind-boggling deficit.
But the quote misses the point too ... as I'm not so sure that Ms. Calongne quite gets it. See, the President can only veto bills. He or she does have not have the power of the line-item veto. Thus, the people Ms. Calongne ought to be calling at 3 A.M. are Members of Congress, though I highly doubt they will take kindly to be called at 3 A.M.
Now, Mr. Jenkins laments the fact that the national Democratic Party was opposed to wiretapping without a court order and giving retroactive immunity to telecommunications companies that helped the Bush Administration spy on the American people. I quote:
"Without that capability, we're in serious risk, serious danger."
Hmmm ... if only Mr. Jenkins knew about the law currently in effect - the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act. That allows the government to wiretap an individual without a court order for up to 72 hours. Within that 72 hour time period, they have to go to a special court and get a warrant to listen in on that person's conversations. And you know what? It's actually worked quite well ... as the FISA Court, as it's called, has rejected the Administration's requests for warrants in 2005 were rejected all of one of 2,176 requests, thus approving 2,175; and in 2006, the court rejected none of the requests for warrants, approving 2,176. More importantly, from 2001 to 2006, the FISA court has rejected a mere 4 applications for warrants, while approving at least 4,351 requests. Yeah, we're in danger, y'all because the FISA court is rejecting a whole lot of warrant requests.
I am aware that Mr. Jenkins has a law degree from LSU Law. He should be aware of the 4th Amendment as a graduate from that illustrious institution. If not, here it is:
The right of the people to be secure in their persons, houses, papers, and effects, against unreasonable searches and seizures, shall not be violated, and no Warrants shall issue, but upon probable cause, supported by Oath or affirmation, and particularly describing the place to be searched, and the persons or things to be seized.
I know that he missed having Professor John Baker for Constitutional Law, but I would very surprised to learn that a conservative like Woody is not aware of the famous maxim of Benjamin Franklin, a man who lived under the threat of losing his head as one of the signers of the Declaration of Independence:
"They who would give up an essential liberty for temporary security, deserve neither liberty or security."
Further, why in the hell should the telecommunications industry get a free pass for violating the rights of American citizens by giving the government all of our information, and allowing them to listen in on our conversations without our knowledge?
Depending on how you look at it, the Cook Political Report downrated (GOP chances to retain this seat) or uprated (Democratic chances to win this seat) the race for this seat. [The Cook Political Report is subscription-only, sorry] To wit:
Insiders on both sides agree the nomination of the current favorites - moderate Democratic state Rep. Don Cazayoux and GOP newspaper publisher Woody Jenkins - would present something akin to a perfect storm for Democrats in the May 3rd special general election.
Cazayoux, much like neighboring Democratic Rep. Charlie Melancon did in 2004, could very plausibly take advantage of GOP disunity and use his rural background to cut into the heart of the district's GOP base. And in this political environment, Republicans would even be unwise to discount [Democratic state Rep.] Michael Jackson's bid were he to win the Democratic nomination. The presence of a third candidate in the general election, Independent former congressional aide Ashley Casey, could further endanger GOP chances of holding this seat. Casey has pledged to caucus with Republicans in the House if elected and has embarked on a decently funded effort to win the votes of moderate Republicans unsatisfied with the current crop of GOP candidates.
Yeah, Ashley Casey is an independent ... pledging to caucus with the GOP? Seriously? Expect to see more of this throughout the cycle, Republicans afraid to express their Republican bona-fides in fear that the GOP brand has taken a hit after 8 years of their dear leader, George W. Bush. Hell, one of Woody's first commercials out there don't even mention that he's a Republican!
The results of the March 8th special primary illustrated Republicans' problems in this race. Like many in the South, this Baton Rouge-based district's track record at the federal level (it gave President Bush 59 percent in 2004) flies in the face of its party registration breakdown (49.6 percent Democratic to 28.1 percent Republican). But in the special primary, turnout appeared much more reflective of party registration than federal-level performance. The fact that 47,632 Democrats and just 29,875 Republicans turned out to vote is evidence of a serious enthusiasm gap between the parties. Of course, it is difficult to gauge how the district's fundamentals have changed since Hurricane Katrina added tens of thousands of new residents to the Baton Rouge area.
Here's the Cook Report's bottom line on this race:
Republicans are rightly worried about losing their second consecutive seat in a special election. But this turbulent race is not yet in the bag for Democrats, and just how willing the cash-strapped NRCC will be to spend its way out of trouble remains an open question.
This is the fourth of a series of posts on the voter turnout throughout the 6th CD in Louisiana. You can view the first post here. You can view the first post here. In that post, I analyzed the voter turnout in Pointe Coupee Parish and West Feliciana Parish, which are on the northwestern edge of this district. You can view the second post here, where I analyzed turnout in East Feliciana and St. Helena Parishes. You can view the third post here, where I analyzed turnout in Livingston and Ascension parishes. Today, I look at turnout in West Baton Rouge and Iberville Parishes, in the southwestern corner of this district below the flip!
This is the third of a series of posts on the voter turnout throughout the 6th CD in Louisiana. You can view the first post here. In that post, I analyzed the voter turnout in Pointe Coupee Parish and West Feliciana Parish, which are on the northwestern edge of this district. You can view the second post here, where I analyzed turnout in East Feliciana and St. Helena Parishes. Today, we continue the series below the flip, looking at turnout in Livingston and Ascension parishes in the southeastern corner of this district.
UPDATE: special thanks to Ara Rubyan, who pointed out my late-night insomnia-induced math problems.
This is the second of a series of posts on the voter turnout throughout the 6th CD in Louisiana. You can view the first post here. In that post, I analyzed the voter turnout in Pointe Coupee Parish and West Feliciana Parish, which are on the northwestern edge of this district. Tonight, let's move further to the northeast, shall we?
First off, let me offer congratulations to both Don Cazayoux and Michael Jackson for their performances in this election. And, let me commend Kopplin and Decuir supporters for the energy and passion they brought to this race. I'd love to see Don earn your support.
This morning, I was talking with a buddy of mine, a brilliant carpenter who was a staunch Kopplin supporter. He told me: "Go check out the secretary of state, and see how well your boy Cazayoux did - cause he's got my support and he can win the whole thing."
Well, the Democrats are headed to a runoff that will be held on Saturday, April 5th between Don Cazayoux and Michael Jackson. Here are the final numbers from last night's primary:
Candidate
Votes
% of Vote
Don Cazayoux
16,596
34.96%
Joe Delatte
1,017
2.14%
Jason DeCuir
8,790
18.52%
Michael Jackson
12,882
27.14%
Andy Kopplin
8,176
17.22%
I must say that I find it impressive that with limited funds, Michael Jackson pulled in 27% of the vote, mainly on Cleo Fields' GOTV operation. I didn't see or hear anything about the operation out on the street until the week before the race, and yet, they pulled nearly 13,000 folks out to vote. That's impressive.
That being said, I still think this thing is Don's to lose. He raised a ton of money, and still has the ability to raise even more, as those folks can all donate again, thanks to a run-off. His campaign commercials were memorable, and I am hoping to see more substance from both Cazayoux and Jackson over the next month.
On the GOP side, there is going to be a run-off, no matter what the GOP says. I notice that the Secretary of State's website was calculating the percentages last night with two decimal places, and then all of a sudden, just stopped doing that. Perhaps because they wanted to ensure that folks thought Woody pulled the magic 50% number? If so, they forget that we Louisianans know how to add and subtract, multiply and divide.
Here the results, with the REAL percentages of the Repewblican Primary:
Candidate
# of Votes
% of Votes
Laurinda Calongne
7,584
25.46%
Michael Cloonan
425
1.42%
"Woody" Jenkins
14,849
49.85%
Paul Sawyer
6,924
23.24%
The magic # for Woody, as pointed out by arubyan in a previous post, 14,892, which means he missed it by 43 votes. Expect a recount, like arubyan suggests.
That's an advantage of 17,679 voters. The GOP has got to be worried of losing this seat, after last night's crushing defeat in IL-14, where a great Democrat took over former Republican Speaker of the House Denny Hastert's seat.
However, so did State Rep. Michael Jackson, who has yet to even hold a
formal announcement press conference that he is running. Nor does he have a website. But he has filed with the FEC, which allows him to start fundraising.
So far, we have two GOPers running - former State Rep. Woody Jenkins and health care consultant Laurinda L. Calongne. State Rep. Hunter Greene, at press time, has not filed his papers yet.
UPDATE: Another Democrat has already filed his papers to run - a Joe Delatte, a construction worker from Zachary; and former Louisiana Recovery Authority leader Andy Kopplin is expected to file his papers tomorrow, the last day of qualifying. On the GOP side, Rep. Baker's former Chief of Staff, a Paul Sawyer, filed his papers as well.
UPDATE II: As expected, former LRA head Andy Kopplin got in the race. Surprisingly, failed State Senate candidate Jason DeCuir got in the race as well.
On the GOPer side, a Michael Cloonan of Slaughter, LA also got in.
As it turns out Melara and Domingue might be described, in internet parlance, as BFF. They EVEN vacation together, here's them in 
