(GOTV is what is going to win this ballgame, people. I've learned that one the hard way on some campaigns ... Daschle in '04, the overnight poll the night before had us up 2%, and we lost by 2% for a swing of 4%. Anything can happen. We must not let up ... we must call, knock, and drive everyone we know that will vote for Don to the polls on Saturday. In the words of a GOTV mentor, GO! FIGHT! WIN! - promoted by ryan)
Edited for clarity ... ryan
Well, from Survey USA comes a poll showing that Don Cazayoux, with 3 days until the voting begins is poised to win this district.
The poll shows the following spread (with Anzalone Liszt's 4/15 results):
Candidate
Poll %
Don Cazayoux
50% (49%)
Woody Jenkins
41% (42%)
Other/Undecided
8% (?)
The cross-tabs are VERY interesting:
Among white voters, the Republican has a 5-point advantage. Among black voters, the Democrat leads 5:1.
Among voters age 50+, the Republican has a 5-point advantage. Among voters younger than 50, the Democrat leads by 20.
Among men, the contest is effectively tied. Among women, the Democrat leads by 19.
19% of Republicans cross-over and vote Democrat. 18% of Democrats cross-over and vote Republican. Independents break 2:1 for the Democrat.
Among voters who say that illegal immigrants should be forced to leave the country, the Republican leads by 14. Among voters who say that illegals should be penalized but allowed to stay in the country, the Democrat leads by 34.
Among voters who say Congress should continue to fund the war in Iraq, the Republican leads by 51. Among voters who say Congress should reduce funding for the war, the Democrat leads by 41. And among voters who say Congress should stop funding the war altogether, the Democrat leads by 80.
Hell, even the favorability numbers are impressive ... Cazayoux has favorable/unfavorable of 43/28, while Jenkins has favorable/unfavorable numbers of 36/49.
While all this certainly boosts my spirits, I must throw some cold water on y'all, and it has to do with the weighting that Survey USA did:
Of the likely and actual voters in this poll, 42% identified themselves as Democrats, 42% identified themselves as Republican. 15% identified themselves as Independents. Turnout in a special election is difficult to forecast. The outcome of this special election, in particular, is turnout dependent. If voters are older and/or whiter than SurveyUSA here foresees, the Republican will outperform these numbers.
(There is some confusion as to what the Coook Political Report did. From a Democratic perspective, it upgraded the race, meaning that there is a stronger chance for a Democratic candidate to win the seat. From a Repewblican perspective, they downgraded the race, as there is a stronger chance the GOP can lose the seat)
Charlie Cook, the longtime publisher of the The Cook Political Report, an independent, non-partisan newsletter that analyzes elections and campaigns for the US House of Representatives, US Senate, Governors and President; has downrated the LA-06 race from Leans Republican to Likely Republican.
From behind the subscription wall, here is the shortened analysis (due to copyright concerns):
National Democrats believe they have found a candidate who can put this GOP-leaning Baton Rouge district in play in what is likely to be a May 3rd special election ... A special primary election will be held March 8 th , and a special primary runoff is likely to follow on April 5th.
That candidate is eight-year Democratic state Rep. Don Cazayoux, a 41 year-old, pro-life former prosecutor from rural Point Coupee Parish who sports A ratings from the NRA. He has raised twice as much money as the next leading Democrat between the beginning of the year and mid-February. But he starts out the primary race with a relatively low profile in the Baton Rouge population center of the district and must first get by three other serious Democratic contenders for the nomination, two of whom are African-American. An April runoff is likely.
This district's PVI of R+7 would suggest a real uphill climb for Democrats, but the district's political character has not truly been measured since Hurricane Katrina added thousands of new, mostly black residents to the Baton Rouge area.
The real GOP headache in this race is the possibility of a Cazayoux- [Woody] Jenkins match up, which is far from certain at this stage. National Republicans worry that if Jenkins were to prevail in a low-turnout primary or runoff with the aid of his devoted supporters, his appeal beyond the district's religious conservative base would be limited in a race against a Democrat. If Cazayoux or another Democrat were to make inroads with moderate, less socially oriented Republicans and mobilize the district's black voters - African-Americans are just about a third of the population here - it is easy to see how this could turn into a clear steal opportunity. For now, this race moves to the Lean Republican column.
It seems that Cook sees this race as "leans Republican" so long as State Rep. Don Cazayoux gets out of the Democratic primary, which is being held next Saturday, March 8th. I think a run-off is likely, which means that all the candidates and campaigns should work their tails off, organize their voters, and make sure their voters get out to vote. And we'll what happens when the dust settles on March 8th.
It's Sunday afternoon at 5 PM and the Cazayoux staff is plugging away at the phones, calling voters. You can see some of them if you look closely enough in this pretty bad picture that I took with my camera phone.
It's exciting to see a Democratic campaign in the 6th CD doing this for the first time since (that I know of) Marjorie McKeithen almost sent Richard Baker into lobbying a decade ago.
So I'm excited that at least one campaign is setting up shop, hiring staff, and getting real about talking with voters. If you're interested in finding out more about Don Cazayoux, here's the website, and their campaign HQ in Baton Rouge is located right downtown at 816 Main Street. As all campaigns do, they are looking for volunteers, so feel free to stop in, or give them a call at 225-638-7719.
I put Baker and McCrery up there, because they still have some dough left - Baker with some $141,000; and McCrery with nearly $800,000 in the bank. They can only transfer the money to other federal races, or donate it to charity. Something tells me that they will help out other Republican candidates down the line.
Also, Governor PBJ only has $50 in the bank. It seems that he is done with federal offices ... at least those that are in Congress.
However, so did State Rep. Michael Jackson, who has yet to even hold a
formal announcement press conference that he is running. Nor does he have a website. But he has filed with the FEC, which allows him to start fundraising.
So far, we have two GOPers running - former State Rep. Woody Jenkins and health care consultant Laurinda L. Calongne. State Rep. Hunter Greene, at press time, has not filed his papers yet.
UPDATE: Another Democrat has already filed his papers to run - a Joe Delatte, a construction worker from Zachary; and former Louisiana Recovery Authority leader Andy Kopplin is expected to file his papers tomorrow, the last day of qualifying. On the GOP side, Rep. Baker's former Chief of Staff, a Paul Sawyer, filed his papers as well.
UPDATE II: As expected, former LRA head Andy Kopplin got in the race. Surprisingly, failed State Senate candidate Jason DeCuir got in the race as well.
On the GOPer side, a Michael Cloonan of Slaughter, LA also got in.
But seriously, do we really want to have a Congressman who believes this:
As late as the year 1900, the majority of Americans owned their own businesses, which in most cases was a farm. People lived on farms. They had their own dreams. There were no limits. They were not employees. Employment was a rare thing. Americans viewed employment, in their historic memory, much like serfdom.
There was something special about being a farmer. The mother would raise the boy until he was five, six or seven years of age. Then the boy would go with the father to plow the fields, to work with the animals. They were together all day, hour after hour, year after year. And the father would talk to the boy and share with the boy everything he believed. He'd tell the boy what to think about God, what to think about his country and its political leaders, what to think about other men, and what to think about women and how to treat them. Over the years, the boy would come to believe everything the man believed.
For generation after generation in America, we had great stability because we passed down, from one generation to the next, the wisdom of the past.
While I have great respect for Democratic State Legislators, of which State Rep. Michael Jackson, (D-61st), is one; I am disturbed by some information that I've uncovered about his State House campaign.
In doing some research on a project I am looking to start, I have been going through the websites of Democratic legislators and researching their finance people. This past election season, Michael Jackson's Finance Chairperson was a Christy Casteel.
If you click on her name, you'll see that she is listed as Richard Baker's Chief of Staff. Don't believe it yet? Then click here, and you'll see Richard Baker's Chief of Staff listed as none other than Christy Casteel.
It gets better, or worse, depending on how you look at it. Who did Richard Baker endorse for the 61st District in last year's legislative races? None other than State Rep. Michael Jackson.
And what was Christy Casteel's comment for Richard Baker on that endorsement?
"All of these people we are helping are friends."
I have a hard time believing that Ms. Casteel's, and by extension, Richard Baker's motives are pure in this case. After all, Ms. Casteel served as then Vice-President George H.W. Bush's Louisiana Campaign Director back in 1988. And Congressman Baker, as we all know, is a dyed-in-the-wool Republican.
Could they be pushing Rep. Jackson to run in the Democratic primary, only so the GOP can easily defeat him in a general election?
Per the Times Picayune, Rep. Richard Baker is resigning from Congress no later than February 6th, to take a lobbying position with the Mutual Funds Association, which will mean two things:
1. He'll get a nice ol' raise from some $165,000 per year as a Congressman to over $1 million per year.
2. It will be an open seat campaign, which will make it somewhat easier for Don Cazayoux to win this seat.
The tricky part is that there may be a special election called for March 8th, which Secretary of State Jay Dardenne will recommend to Governor PBJ. However, since the rules of the game have changed, it will be a closed primary on March 8th, with the general election being a month or so later.
If that's the case, it's gonna be a wild spring ... two races for Congress in Louisiana. Might we finally see the national parties down here throwing money left and right?
State Rep. Don Cazayouz announced yesterday at a press conference in Baton Rouge that he is running for Congress for Richard Baker's seat, regardless of whether or not Baker decides to resign. He is, to date, the only official candidate in the race, having filed his papers with the FEC.
Cazayoux is now serving his third term as a State Representative for the New Roads area, and was recently named to the House Democratic Leadership as the Majority Whip. In discussing his priorities, Cazayoux stated that "it's time for a leader who is focused on investing in education, creating better jobs, making sure that Louisiana's working families can afford health insurance and bringing our troops home with honor."
WAFB is reporting that we may have another open seat this fall - that of Congressman Richard Baker, LA-06, which is based in the Baton Rouge area. We've already got two open Congressional seats here in Louisiana - LA-01, thanks to PBJ's election to the Governor's mansion; and LA-04, thanks to Congressman McCrery's announcement that he will retire at the end of this year.
Congressman Baker has filed paperwork with the House Clerk's office that he intends to discuss a potential job with the Managed Funds Association. Baker told WAFB that he is considered by MFA to be the top candidate to become MFA's next CEO. He will be meeting with them starting on Monday to gauge whether he wants to take the job or stay in Congress.
Democratic State Rep. Donald Cazayoux of New Roads has confirmed that he will throw his hat in the ring if Baker retires.
I just read an email from the DCCC that they are running ads against Rep. Richard Baker for his continued votes against Louisiana's uninsured children.
Here's the text of the radio ad:
Congressman Richard Baker – you receive quality health insurance provided at taxpayers' expense, so why do you continue to vote against providing quality affordable health care to Louisiana's children?
With the State Children's Health Insurance Program – SCHIP – set to expire, you have a simple choice to make:
Continue to stand with President Bush or with Louisiana's kids.
SCHIP legislation will provide health care coverage for nearly 10 million children, including over 100,000 children here in Louisiana, and is funded by a 61 cent increase in the tobacco tax.
Yet President Bush has vetoed it and you stand with him – instead of kids.
Congress has revised the bill to override Bush's veto. When will you stop moving the bar and supporting the president – and start siding with Louisiana's children?
Congressman Baker – stand with kids, NOT George Bush.
Paid for by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, www.DCCC.org. Not authorized by any candidate or candidate's committee.
According to the Washington Post, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is bringing a slightly amended SCHIP bill to the floor of the House today, one week after an overwhelming majority of House Republicans voted nay on overriding our compassionate conservative President's veto.
And yet, all of our Republican Congresscritters - Rep. Charles Boustany, Rep. Richard Baker, Rep. Rodney Alexander, and Rep. Jim McCrery - either voted to hold the President's veto last week, or, in the case of our new Governor-elect, stayed home. Needless to say, both of our Democratic Congressmen - Rep. Jefferson and Rep. Melancon - voted to overturn the President's heartless veto.
Will any of these GOPers realize that they're just shooting themselves in the foot by voting against children and for Mr. 24% on this issue? Personally, I hope not, as I would love to see all of them knocked out of office come November 2008. Call your Congressman ... numbers below:
Rep. Rodney Alexander
DC Office: (202) 225-8490
LA Office: (318) 445-0818
Rep. Richard Baker
DC Office: (202) 225-3901
LA Office: (225) 929-7711
Rep. Charles Boustany
DC Office: (202) 225-2031
LA Office: (337) 235-6322
Rep. "Bobby" Jindal
DC Office: (202) 225-3015
LA Office: (504) 837-1259
Rep. Jim McCrery
DC Office: (202) 225-2777
LA Office: (318) 798-2254
"The Republicans, state and federal, see the Landrieu race as a competitive one and, at the moment, I'm not so sure there's a candidate out there," Baker says. "But I can tell you it is nothing I intend to take on."
While the 2007 Louisiana Gubernatorial race and 2008 Presidential speculation are probably gaining the bulk of the attention, the 2008 Senate race in Louisiana should be interesting. Mary Landrieu is regarded as the most vulnerable Democrat of the cycle across the country. So, what is the current state of the NRSC and LA-GOP finding an opponent for her?
It's like the LA-GOP and NRSC are standing at a microphone mumbling, "Is this thing on?" While there is still almost 18 months until Election Day 2008, Republican options are slimming awful quickly.
Put yourself into the shoes of someone else will you? Imagine you were in a minority. Imaging the majority HATED YOU. Imaging now those same people that hate you… yell terrible things at you when you walk by them. Imagine the local police seem to turn a blind eye to this, or when you do complain they tell you are just being sensitive and to not worry about it.
Then, picture yourself on a split rail fence in the middle of Wyoming. You barely remember how you got here and you can't bare to try to remember for the pain you are suffering is so great. Your face so bloody that you can barely see your skin, except where the tears washed your face clean in a small line down to your chin.
Hate crimes are more heinous and more violent and do not have only one target - an entire class is effected by these crimes and why we as a country should demand that these crimes are prosecuted at a different level.
One of the most lucid and insightful posts/articles I have ever seen on the future of the Huey P. Long Medical Center, over at Cenlamar.
The Huey P. Long Medical Center is a part of the Louisiana Charity Hospital System, one that is broken, no thanks to "Bobby" Jindal's amazing management skills.
Cenlamar is also a great blog on Central Louisiana happenings, as well as a place I check frequently for insightful posts on literally anything dealing with Louisiana.
It's Sunday afternoon at 5 PM and the Cazayoux staff is plugging away at the phones, calling voters. You can see some of them if you look closely enough in this pretty bad picture that I took with my camera phone. 
